Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW)

691a971d-17ec-4375-889e-55ea6298ea40

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NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC

£9,524,000

June 30, 2017

June 30, 2020

The overarching aim of ACREW is to develop the UK's capacity for building the resilience of developing countries to atmospheric hazards. The proposed programme of work will focus on two hazards: air pollution and adverse weather - both of which disproportionately impact poor people. Air pollution is a critical problem in many developing economies, reducing life expectancy by up to a decade, and GDP by up to 5% per year. Weak infrastructure and dependence on rain fed agriculture render the populations of developing countries critically vulnerable to variation in the weather.

Recent technological and scientific developments offer opportunities to build the resilience of developing countries to hazards related both to air quality and to climate/weather. In the case of air quality, new sensor technology promises a revolution in our ability to measure pollution on all scales, at low cost. Reduced computing costs and readily available open-source software, furthermore, offer opportunities for scientists in developing countries to run their own air quality simulations. In the case of climate and weather, newly available models, observational datasets and analysis tools have the potential to improve early warning of weather-related hazard on time-scales of days to seasons. Users must, however, understand how much confidence can be placed in state-of-the-art models and technologies, if such systems are to be exploited safely in operational settings. This relies on sound scientific understanding of underpinning mechanisms, as well as on close engagement between researchers and end users.

All of the proposed work in ACREW contributes to the promotion of economic development and improved human welfare and health in developing countries. The specific activities have been chosen to exploit new scientific developments and existing expertise within NCAS. The air quality work packages (WPs) focus on the development of a new, affordable sensor for monitoring of air quality; liquid fuel composition and its effect on air pollution; and the formulation of evidence-based emissions policies through simulation of air quality in major cities. The climate/weather WPs focus on early warning of agricultural drought; the risks associated with tropical cyclones; prediction of intense rainfall; and the utility of forecast information for managing complex systems, such as renewable energy supply and demand. Each WP includes elements of science and application, although the balance varies depending on the activity. Both the air quality and climate/weather components of ACREW include operational pilots of new technology, which will be carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations.

Strengthening and building of partnerships are key objectives for ACREW, and crucial for the project's success. To this end, ACREW is centered round a series of workshops and exchange visits. These engagement activities will cement collaborations and facilitate co-development of new technologies and research applications. The participation of international organizations, such as the WMO, WHO, ECMWF and the Met Office in annual workshops will enhance the uptake ACREW scientific findings - widening impact beyond immediate project partnerships and pilots, and securing long-term development outcomes.

Potential Impact:
The pathway to impact envisaged in ACREW is:

-to carry out relevant scientific research in partnership with in-country organizations
-to develop methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
-to demonstrate applications through a variety of engagement activities

1. Relevance of the scientific research
The scientific research in ACREW is centered around atmospheric hazard in DAC-listed countries. There are two components to ACREW: hazards related to air quality; hazards related to weather/climate. The proposed research focuses on improving capacity to monitor and model hazards (WPA1, WPA3, WPB2, WPB3); understand the drivers of hazardous conditions (WPA2, WPA3, WPB1, WPB3); quantify the risks posed by hazards (WPA1, WPA3, WPB2); and investigate the utility of state-of-the-art models and observations for management of hazard in DAC-listed countries (WPA3, WPB1, WPB2, WPB3, WPB4).

2. Methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
Where applicable, ACREW will produce guidelines and policy briefs to facilitate uptake of research. These will be developed in partnership with in-country collaborators, such as the IITM. New instruments (eg WPA1), decision support tools (eg WPB1) and datasets (eg WPB2) will provide a means for agencies in DAC-listed countries to exploit fundamental ACREW research, for example on the representation of drought in land surface models (WPB1).

3. Demonstration of applications through engagement activities
ACREW will be centered around annual workshops, which will include ACREW Investigators, ACREW collaborators and representatives from well-established programmes and international organizations, such as the World Meteorological Organization and the World Health Organization (see spheres of influence diagram in the Pathways to Impact). The workshops will be a forum for stakeholders to direct ACREW research, and hence to facilitate the integration of tools and applications into existing platforms, such as RAINWATCH.

On a day-to-day level, pilot projects carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations, such as the Ghana Meteorological Agency, Risk Shield and the One Acre Fund, will enable deep engagement and immediate impact on local communities.

A key objective of ACREW is to build new collaborations, including in areas of research where partnerships with DAC-listed countries are less mature. Participation in workshops organized by other programmes, such as Future Climate for Africa, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, and the Walker Institute Adaptive Sahel Information platform, will facilitate this.

Finally, a substantial budget has been allocated for exchange visits to be undertaken by ACREW Investigators and in-country partners. These visits will cement partnerships and facilitate the practical application of ACREW research - greatly enhancing impact.