Water security in southern Africa encapsulates global pressures on water: rapid population growth, chronic and drought-induced food shortages, growing water scarcity and energy security problems coincident with rising demand, transboundary and regional allocation issues, and a strongly variable climate that will likely become drier and more variable in the future. These challenges are exacerbated by political, institutional and economic factors, including limited management and regulatory capacity, and highly inequitable access to reliable potable water. This research seeks to improve understanding of the drivers of short to medium term hydro-meteorological variability, its socioeconomic consequences and develop approaches for improved water resources management in the region.
The proposed collaboration addresses important knowledge gaps in the effective management of water security. Hydro-meteorological variability is large and spatially extensive such that prolonged floods and droughts cause macroscale socioeconomic impacts yet these are poorly understood. Seasonal forecasts show greater skill for southern Africa relative to many other regions but reliability and skill remain important constraints. This project will assess and refine seasonal forecasts for water management, model the socioeconomic consequences of hydro-meteorological variability and develop knowledge transfer techniques, such as Info-Gap Decision Theory for supporting water management under conditions of high uncertainty. A co-design process will engage with two case studies to develop decision-relevant indicators, and high level dissemination and up-scaling will occur through regional workshops with strategic decision-makers.

Potential Impact:
Impact activities are comprised as follows;

1. High level knowledge exchange through targeted workshop activities
The stakeholder co-design of the research is a central aspect of the project. Two integral workshops will be held: an inception/co-design workshop at the outset and a results/upscaling workshop towards the end.
Inception/co-design workshop; day 1 will raise awareness about the research, demonstrate the methods and tools available through the team's expertise and showcase examples of their application. Day 2 will involve more specific co-design of the research with selected case study partners.
Results/up-scaling workshop; will give opportunity for the team to present the main results and both case studies. It will provide a forum for the stakeholders to interrogate the research outputs and help identify opportunities to scale up applications within the region and, if appropriate, further afield. The results of the discussion will be written up as a policy brief to capture the best opportunities and ensure the project legacy continues beyond the period of funding.
The team is experienced in high level policy engagement. In recognition of the importance of this aim the team is supported by an experienced Impact Adviser and facilitator with an extensive career in the private sector (including in Africa) and politics and member of the UK Parliamentary International Development Select Committee.
To achieve regional impact we will hold at least one workshop in Gaborane (Botswana) which is the location of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Secretariat Head Office.

2. Co-design and collaboration with end-users through case studies
End-user engagement to achieve impact is integral to our project design. We have letters of support from two (summarised below), however, we wish to keep this flexible and will retain options to work with other high level stakeholders to ensure maximum innovation and potential for impact.
Direct collaboration with end-users will help strengthen capacity, foster links between researchers and practitioners and policy.

FANRPAN (Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network) is a regional policy research and advocacy network whose operations are informed by major regional policy frameworks and processes in Southern Africa.
South Africa Water Research Commission (WRC). The role of South Africa in SADC and NEPAD (New Partnership for Africa's Development), especially with regard to water resource and water supply and sanitation issues, poses new challenges and requires new initiatives which are within the mandate of the WRC.

3. Academic papers
Academic impact is planned through a series of papers in high impact journals, identified to capture the interdisciplinary dimensions of the work.

4. Policy briefs
We will produce insights targeted at policy audiences through IFPRI's Policy Briefs and Project Notes series. These have a wide reach, being widely read across the developing world. Two outputs of this type will be produced during the project. We will use the Inception workshop to receive guidance on content, structure and audience and seek co-authorship with relevant stakeholders from the region.

5. Online and other media outlets
Each institution will upload a SAHEWS set of web pages to their main website.
Team members will be encouraged to record short vlogs for their own and other relevant websites.
The copyright of new datasets generated, will be in accordance with Belmont (or respective National Research Councils) Research Data Policy. Final output datasets will be prepared for sharing according to Belmont (or respective National Research Councils) Research Data Policy. Our aim is to produce datasets that will serve as a foundation for further research.