Energy models provide essential quantitative insights into the 21st Century challenges of decarbonisation, energy security and cost-effectiveness. Models provide the integrating language that assists energy policy makers to make improved decisions under conditions of pervasive uncertainty. Whole systems energy modelling also has a central role in helping industrial and wider stakeholders assess future energy technologies and infrastructures, and the potential role of societal and behavioural change.
Despite this fundamental underpinning role, the UK has not had a national strategic energy modelling activity. Models have been developed on a fragmented, reactive and ad-hoc basis, with a critical shortfall in the continuity of funding to develop new models, retain human capacity, and link modelling frameworks in innovative ways to answer new research questions.
The whole systems energy modelling (wholeSEM www.wholesem.ac.uk) consortium is explicitly designed to enable the UK to make an internationally leading research impact in this critical area, and hence to provide cutting-edge transparent quantitative analysis to underpin public and private energy systems decision making. Following a rigorous selection process, the wholeSEM consortium encapsulates leading and interdisciplinary UK capacity in quantitative whole systems energy research.
The key aims of the interdisciplinary wholeSEM consortium are:
1. Undertake internationally cutting edge research on prioritised energy system topics;
2. Integrate whole energy systems modelling approaches across disciplinary boundaries;
3. Build bilateral engagement mechanisms with the wider UK energy systems community in academia, government and industry.
The wholeSEM consortium will prioritise on key modelling areas of high relevance to interdisciplinary energy systems. Internationally leading research will focus on:
1. How does energy demand co-evolve with changes in practice, supply, and policy?
2. How will the endogenous, uncertain, and path dependent process of technological change impact future energy systems?
3. How can the energy supply-demand system be optimised over multiple energy vectors and infrastructures?
4. What are the major future physical and economic interactions and stresses between the energy system and the broader environment?
The consortium, will employ extensive integration mechanisms to link and apply interdisciplinary models to key energy policy problems. This will take place across the conceptualisation and development of innovative modelling approaches, model construction, and through an integrated set of use-cases.
A key element of the wholeSEM is substantive bilateral engagement with stakeholders in academia, government and industry. Multi-layered integration mechanisms will include:
- A high-profile advisory board, with key policy/industry representation plus wider academic experts;
- An innovative fellowship programme to enable bi-directional UK academic, policy and industrial and international experts to work with wholeSEM research teams;
- A range of workshops including four internationally high profile annual UK energy modelling conferences, technical workshops focused on key modelling issues, and non-technical stakeholder workshops on model conceptualisation, development and use-cases;
- Detailed and transparent documentation for all of the consortium's new energy models;
- Model access, based on collaborative agreements with an expert model user group. This will ensure best-use of models, accountability and two-way flows of information from/to model developers, users and critics;
- Collation and curation of energy modelling data sources (building off and working with the UKERC Energy Data Centre);
- Provision of training in modelling techniques and software platforms, to train and develop the next generation of energy systems modellers, including interactions with centres for doctoral training (CDTs);
- Interactive web-based information dissemination

Potential Impact:
Comprehensive bi-directional collaboration with the full range of UK and international energy systems experts and stakeholders is a core goal of the wholeSEM project, and is well resourced, constituting around 20% of the overall budget. Crucially, these activities will be coordinated by a full time project administrator.
With UK policy makers: A next generation of whole systems energy models will support decision-making in a more uncertain, heterogeneous and complex future. An important success criteria for the project will be the ability of policy decision makers to understand, critique, deploy and exploit such next generation models. Project support letters include DECC, CCC, and OFGEM.
With UK industrial and wider energy stakeholders: Interdisciplinary model outputs will be invaluable to the full range of decision makers in the energy value chain, in providing information on the opportunities, emerging risks and values of new technologies, energy vectors and services. Project support letters include ETI, National Grid, BP, Redpoint, PPA Energy, and WWF-UK.
With UK consumers: Public engagement will be heavily facilitated via electronic communication (based on the UKERC success in these methods), including the project website and wiki, social networking and a two-way blog function.
With international experts: Effective engagement with the main international players and energy modelling networks is critical to ensure that the UK is at the forefront of developing the next generation of tools. A key element will be the series of high-profile annual conferences each built around innovative modelling methodologies. Research outputs will be evaluated against those in other countries, through two-way visits and exchanges. Project engagement letters are included from IEA-ETSAP, IIASA (Austria), FEEM (Italy), ECN (Netherlands), PNNL-JGCRI (USA), RITE (Japan), UCT (South Africa), and TERI (India).
Other specific bilateral networking and outreach activities include:
- An expanded high-profile advisory board - chaired by Prof Jim Skea - with existing key policy/industry representative plus wider academic experts;
- An innovative fellowship programme (12 Fellows over the 4-year project lifetime) to enable bi-directional UK academic, policy and industrial and international experts to work with wholeSEM research teams;
- Four internationally high profile annual UK energy modelling conferences;
- Technical workshops focused on key modelling issues (6 per year, 24 in total);
- Non-technical stakeholder workshops on model conceptualisation, development and use-cases (3 per year, 12 in total);
- Mapping out and enabling new links between the UK's energy modelling research capacity;
- Collation and curation of energy modelling data sources (building off and working with the UKERC Energy Data Centre);
- Provision of training in modelling techniques and software platforms, to train and develop the next generation of energy systems modellers through Masters level course materials and interactions with relevant centres for doctoral training (CDTs);
- Provision of responsive engagement - to regulators, government officials and energy industry staff - to understand and assess analytical approaches to key energy issues;
- Detailed and transparent documentation for all of the consortium's new energy models;
- Model access, based on collaborative agreements with an expert model user group. This will strive to ensure best-use of models, accountability and two-way flows of information from/to model developers, users and critics;
- Traditional methods of academic dissemination including leading peer reviewed journals and international conferences;
- Interactive web-based information dissemination routes. These include a detailed website, wikis to share and store detailed modelling discussions, and extensive use of web-based visual communications, webinars and blogs to share information.