Several models have been developed in the UK to predict the energy and associated carbon emissions of the UK housing stock. These have been used to predict the reductions in energy use and carbon emissions arising from alternative renovation options (e.g. insulating walls and roofs, draught stripping, fitting more efficient heating systems), based on different scenarios in terms of the adoption of these renovation options. None of the existing models is able to predict the adoption of renovation options in response to specific policy measures that are designed to stimulate them. Examples of these include building regulations, financial subsidies, taxation relief and educational campaigns. To address this shortfall, we will develop a new prototype social simulation platform that will model the likelihood that households will invest in energy reducing renovation options and / or change their energy using behaviours, in response to policy measures. This platform will be coupled with a new dynamic housing stock energy model, enabling us to predict the nationwide impacts of households' decarbonisation decisions.

This combined physical and social simulation platform will be deployed in the UK to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative housing decarbonisation policy measures. To enable us to design and calibrate the social simulation platform, we will also design and conduct a pilot UK homeowners' social survey. This will be complemented with existing secondary datasets, to characterise household (to complement existing housing) archetypes and their attributes.

Potential Impact:
The beneficiaries of the proposed research are city and national policymakers that are concerned with reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving housing conditions [policy impacts], the construction industry [economic impacts] and individual homeowners [quality of life impacts].
This research will provide policymakers with unique insights into the effectiveness of policy measures in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and / or in improving living conditions; enabling them to predict for the first time the likely uptake and corresponding energy (and in the future the comfort and health) impacts (and where these impacts are realised, both geographically and demographically) of specific renovation options (e.g. insulation and draught stripping, heating and hot water system) in response to the policy measures designed to stimulate them; enabling them to tune their policy measures.

It is expected that close collaboration with members of the CaCHE network, augmented with the engagement of our partner Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd, will be instrumental in successfully engaging with policy makers. In this we will strive to inform the content of relevant government policy instruments. Furthermore, by making the research outcomes (the modelling platform and survey designs) openly available, the research has the future potential to achieve multinational policy impact.

The construction industry, as well as the power-generation industries, will also benefit from a more thorough and targeted understanding of the business opportunities that exist for the construction of new and renovation of existing low carbon housing. Finally, individual homeowners will benefit from improved living conditions, with corresponding impacts on their health, comfort and wellbeing; particularly those that are currently living in energy poverty.