Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Distribution Loads at Network Asset Level

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Title
Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Distribution Loads at Network Asset Level

CoPED ID
a513b484-7f9f-4b57-926d-1e444eb07bf3

Status
Closed


Value
£219,634

Start Date
April 30, 2014

End Date
Feb. 28, 2015

Description

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In response to growing electricity demand and on-site generation, distribution network operators (DNOs) in the UK are forecast to spend over £43 billion in the coming four decades on reinforcing the network that delivers electricity to UK homes and businesses. To help DNOs plan this task, they have access to forecasting tools that predict the impacts of population growth, energy efficiency improvements and low carbon technology uptake on network loads by specific region and individual asset. However, there is currently no way of quantifying how climate change impacts on demand (e.g. more summer cooling and less winter heating) and distributed generation (e.g. changing average solar insolation and wind levels) will influence the extent of network upgrades required. In this project, we will assess the feasibility of combining Met Office climate forecast data with DNO load data to determine the size and network location of potential climate change impacts on load. To do this, we will develop a prototype tool that combines these datasets to predict climate change load impacts and likelihood, resolved to individual network assets and regions, under various climate change scenarios.

Element Energy Limited LEAD_ORG
Element Energy Limited PARTICIPANT_ORG
Met Office PARTICIPANT_ORG

Mark Hughes PM_PER

Subjects by relevance
  1. Climate changes
  2. Forecasts
  3. Scenarios
  4. Climate
  5. Energy efficiency
  6. Climate protection
  7. Environmental effects
  8. Networks (societal phenomena)
  9. Effects (results)

Extracted key phrases
  1. Forecasting Climate Change Impacts
  2. Climate change load impact
  3. Electricity Distribution Loads
  4. Network Asset Level
  5. Potential climate change impact
  6. Forecasting tool
  7. Network load
  8. Individual network asset
  9. Met Office climate forecast datum
  10. Distribution network operator
  11. Climate change scenario
  12. Network upgrade
  13. Network location
  14. Electricity demand
  15. Low carbon technology uptake

Related Pages

UKRI project entry

UK Project Locations