HubNet is a multi-university collaborative project which is three years into a five-year programme of exploring the future form of energy networks. In particular we are exploring the use of smart grid technologies and HVDC to integrate high penetrations of renewable energy into the electricity system and investigating how to manage changes in energy supply to private vehicles and building heating. It does this through its own programme of core research and through drawing together the research of the Grand Challenges projects in this area and other Research Council activities. This proposal is for an extension to the HubNet's core research in order to address challenges not identified in the original proposal.

Two themes appear in any discussion of the smart grid: (1) the opportunities for consumers to be become more active so that they benefit from trading their energy needs and production, and (2) the creation of an ICT system that generates very large volume of power flow and voltage data that can be harnessed to run the system more efficiently. Despite being a well known topic and the subject of research projects on specific aspects, there is still a lack of consensus over precisely how customers can play their role (in terms of choices they can make, technology to assist and markets that deliver value to all participants). There also remains a lack of clarity over what exactly is the challenge in power system operation to which "big data" technology is the answer. We seek to gain further understanding in these areas through stakeholder engagement activities.

We propose to explore further the opportunities of "big data" through a case study of data used in condition monitoring of transformers and cables to predict accurately lifetime and incipient failure.

A key feature of the electricity system is the low rate power cuts and the high dependence placed on electricity by modern society. Moving from a system where control is exercised primarily by actions in power stations to a system where consumers are encouraged to modify their behaviour and become part of the control and where some power sources (wind and PV for example) are not readily controlled radically changes the risk profile of the system. We propose to develop new analytical techniques to model this and plan future systems. A specific control problem that will be analysed in depth is the gradual removal from the system of the inertia provided by the spinning masses of conventional power station generators. This inertia helps keep the system frequency at 50 Hz. Already Ireland limits the production by wind turbines so that sufficient inertia is retained. We will explore where the limit lies for Great Britain and what innovations might advance that limit.

Finally to address the issues associated with increased uncertainties in system operation and mange the risk of system becoming less controllable and vulnerable to external disturbances, new methodologies will need to be developed to quantify the risk profile of a future power system and how this profile is affected by various epistemic (data shortage or model simplification) and aleatory (inherent random behaviour) uncertainties in system model and operation.

Potential Impact:
We have a management structure already established within HubNet to allow all investigators to pursue the most promising lines of research to maximise impact. The project is supported by our Strategic Advisory Board (SAB) comprising UK based industrial representatives (National Grid, Alstom), global industry (IBM) and non-UK academia. A major effort of the management team and SAB over the preceding 6 months has been to review the landscape in each of HubNet's six thematic areas in terms of UK funded work, international work, demonstration projects and gap analysis.

HubNet is engaged with the DECC/Ofgem Smart Grid Forum which gives us an interchange of ideas and information with the varied industry sectors and form this grouping (covering network operators, consultancies, energy companies, equipment manufacturers and service companies).

Building on the existing HubNet infrastructure we will establish the Supergen+ project as a visible focal point for advanced analysis of uncertain, data rich power systems with reduced participation of conventional generation. We will use the SmartGrid Forum's portal to promulgate our experience as well as using our own established website for position papers and presentation archive. HubNet holds and annual 2-day Smart Grid Symposium for dissemination and this year will take an exhibition stand at the Low Carbon Network Innovation conference in Aberdeen.
Industrial adoption of network innovation is crucial. There are potential routes through Ofgem's NIC and NIA schemes for network operators to demonstrate new technologies that started out as research topics. HubNet partner universities are engaged with several NIC, NIA and the previous LCNF projects featuring demand-side response, storage and active network management and all of these draw strongly on Supergen funded research work for the analysis base.

HubNet researchers have a strong history of contributing to policy development from findings in Supergen funded work including submission to DECC/Ofgem consultations, evidence to Select Committees of parliament and analysis work to support the Smart Grid Forum, the Energy Networks Strategy Group and the Electricity Networks Association. This Supergen+ project will be specifically developing analysis tools for assessment of operation, control and stability of both UK and international electricity systems around specific potential barriers to low carbon generation such as the loss of physical inertia and the change of risk profile.

All of our universities recognise the importance of public engagement and offer a wide range of opportunities for it, and we will contribute to these programmes. The impact of our research is disseminated to the wider public through reporting our work in the media as opportunities arise (such as the recent BBC Radio 4 Frontiers programme on Power Transmission).

HubNet partners have extensive links to universities in China and a growing set in India thanks to specific EPSRC support. Engagement in future Horizon 2020 projects is important for UK industry and academia and we specifically seek to promote that via Smart Grids programme of the European Energy Research Alliance (EERA).

We recognise the need to deepen engagement in the US and will use existing links between Strathclyde and NYU to also draw in other UK partners and US industry through IBM (existing partner) and Con Edison. The economies of South America are developing and need for electricity is growing. Our chosen partner to work with here is Chile