NC ODA 1 Year Extension

5d487495-83d4-4bbb-b2db-d9b6b1ee4673

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NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC

£4,240,050

June 30, 2020

June 30, 2021

The overarching aim of ACREW is to undertake research that builds thew resilience of developing countries to atmospheric hazards. The proposed programme of work will focus on two hazards: air pollution and adverse weather - both of which disproportionately impact poor people. Air pollution is a critical problem in many developing economies, reducing life expectancy by up to a decade, and GDP by up to 5% per year. Weak infrastructure and dependence on rain fed agriculture render the populations of developing countries critically vulnerable to variation in the weather. Within the Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW) project (2017-2020) NCAS has focused on two particular atmospheric hazards, working with local partners to translate cutting edge research into practical application. In this one-year extension to the ACREW project, we build on two key research themes - building new technological capability for air pollution measurement, and new predictive capability for meteorological hazards that impact the agriculture sectors, both with a focus on Africa. Although the research activities and partnerships involved in these two themes are scientifically distinct from one another, we work in an integrated way across NCAS to share best practice in ODA-related research, and where possible use our networks of partners in air quality and meteorological hazard to reach a boarder user audience. In the area of air pollution science we particularly focus in this one-year extension on the development of novel open-source measurement tools, building on recent breakthroughs made in sensor science and fabrication. In the area of meteorological hazards, we have identified a series of case studies as the focus, in order to maximise impact and sustain the partnerships developed in the earlier phases of ACREW.

There is a long-standing critical gap in technological capability for quantifying air pollution in LMICs most recently highlighted by the 2019 UNICEF report "Silent suffocation in Africa". Existing monitoring equipment are not tolerant to unreliable power supplies, have high operational costs, high energy demand, and are very expensive to maintain in the long-term. Over the past three years ACREW has delivered new insight into the basic science of sustainable air-quality information in the world's poorest countries. NCAS has pioneered an entirely new concept for sustainable measurements exploiting the simplicity, modest cost and high reliability of state-of-the-art sensors and electronics, but drastically improving the quality of data collected by employing a multiplexed sensors measuring in an ensemble (or 'cluster'). We are seeking here to undertake research activities with the goal to create a field-tested scalable and practical solution for air quality measurement. This one-year extension will enable NCAS to focus efforts on co-designing, co-producing and field testing highly fault-tolerant sensor-based systems for air pollution measurement.

In the previous stages of ACREW, improved meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has facilitated the development of new methodologies for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall . New observations and reanalysis have, furthermore, elucidated potentially predictable large scale circulation regimes associated with wind energy supply in Central America. In all of the applications described above, risk assessment could be improved further by accounting for variation in prediction skill. For example, predictions of extreme rainfall may be more robust during particular phases of the MJO. Identification of windows of opportunity for robust prediction, and practical application for improved risk assessment will be the themes of the next phase of ACREW.

Potential Impact:
The pathway to impact envisaged in ACREW is:

-to carry out relevant scientific research in partnership with in-country organizations
-to develop methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
-to demonstrate applications through a variety of engagement activities

1. Relevance of the scientific research
The scientific research in ACREW is centered around atmospheric hazard in DAC-listed countries. There are two components to ACREW: hazards related to air quality; hazards related to weather/climate. The proposed research focuses on improving capacity to monitor and model hazards; understand the drivers of hazardous conditions; quantify the risks posed by hazards ; and investigate the utility of state-of-the-art models and observations for management of hazard in DAC-listed countries.

2. Methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
Where applicable, ACREW will produce guidelines and policy briefs to facilitate uptake of research. These will be developed in partnership with in-country collaborators. New instruments for air pollution measurement, decision support tools and datasets ) will provide a means for agencies in DAC-listed countries to exploit fundamental ACREW research, for example on the representation of drought in land surface models.

3. Demonstration of applications through engagement activities
ACREW will be centered around annual workshops, which will include ACREW Investigators, ACREW collaborators and representatives from well-established programmes and international organizations, such as the World Meteorological Organization and the World Health Organization (see spheres of influence diagram in the Pathways to Impact). The workshops will be a forum for stakeholders to direct ACREW research, and hence to facilitate the integration of tools and applications into existing platforms, such as RAINWATCH.

On a day-to-day level, pilot projects carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations, such as the Ghana Meteorological Agency, Risk Shield and the One Acre Fund, will enable deep engagement and immediate impact on local communities.

A key objective of ACREW is to build new collaborations, including in areas of research where partnerships with DAC-listed countries are less mature. Participation in workshops organised by other programmes, such as the World Meteorological Organisation, UNEP, Clean Air Fund, Future Climate for Africa, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, and the Walker Institute Adaptive Sahel Information platform, will facilitate this.

Finally, a budget has been allocated for National and Public Good activities undertaken by NCAS staff and and our key in-country partners. This NPG activity may include visits to cement partnerships and facilitate the practical application of ACREW research - greatly enhancing impact. It will also be used to continue our work with global bodies such as WMO and UNEP through which we put our practical research into action at a global scale.