Understanding ecostytem stocks and tipping points in UK blanket peatlands (short form: Peatland Tipping Points)

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NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC
NERC

£1,847,875

Nov. 30, 2016

Sept. 30, 2019

The aim of this project is to use UK peatlands as a case system in which to understand how the combined effects of climate change and changes in land use and management (and other drivers, such as atmospheric deposition) may trigger tipping points in the provision ecosystem services. The project will specifically consider tipping points for water quality, climate mitigation and cultural services including biodiversity, recreation, tourism and sense of place. The research will then assess the economic, social and cultural value of avoiding these tipping points versus reaching them, and we will use these insights to inform management and policy to enhance the resilience of natural systems to abrupt changes in future.

As the most extensive and well-understood peatland habitat, we focus on blanket bogs, which are the UK's single largest carbon stock. The project will produce research findings in three themes:
1. Triggers: the research will consider how changes in climate, land use and management might trigger regime shifts in in blanket peatlands to degraded states. It will consider the range of biophysical and social factors that may influence whether these shifts also trigger tipping points in the provision of ecosystem services over space and time. Where possible, we will identify early warnings that may indicate systems are heading towards tipping points
2. Values: the research will assess the likely ecological, economic, social and cultural impacts of reaching tipping points in the provision of climate regulation, water quality and cultural services (including biodiversity) in blanket peatlands, and provide decision-makers with holistic evidence to guide decisions about whether, where and how to restore these habitats to avoid tipping points for specific ecosystem services
3. Adaptive management: working closely with stakeholders, the research will consider how different forms of peatland restoration might move blanket peatlands from current degraded states to desirable new stable states that can adaptively sustain the provision of ecosystem services from peatlands under future climate change. Working in collaboration with the IUCN UK Peatland Programme, the owners of the UK Peatland Code, the projects will explore opportunities for private investment combined with existing agri-environment scheme to adaptively manage and avoid tipping points in peatland ecosystem services.

Research findings from each of these themes will provide a range of benefits for policy and practice:
* Evidence of ecosystem service tipping points in UK blanket peatlands that can help prioritise policy measures to prevent key tipping points being reached. Recommendations will include practical restoration and other management options that could be incentivised via Rural Development Programmes , Peatland Action (in Scotland) and the UK Peatland Code, and spatial targeting of incentives and measures to systems and locations where tipping points are most likely to occur
* Evidence that could be used to inform an economic case for investment in peatland restoration, both in terms of avoiding future economic costs and social impacts
* Policy-makers, third sector organisations and practitioners will have early warning indicators that can be easily and effectively used to identify and avoid imminent tipping points
* Evidence to better articulate and quantify the benefits of peatland restoration for delaying and/or avoiding tipping points for multiple ecosystem services as part of the business case for investment in peatland restoration, for UK Peatland Code & Natural Capital Committee

Potential Impact:
The impact goals of this research are to:
* Provide evidence of ecosystem service tipping points in UK blanket peatlands that can help prioritise policy measures to prevent key tipping points being reached. Recommendations will include practical restoration and other management options that could be incentivised via Rural Development Programmes, Peatland Action (in Scotland) and the UK Peatland Code, and spatial targeting of incentives and measures to systems and locations where tipping points are most likely to occur
* Provide evidence that could be used to inform an economic case for investment in peatland restoration, both in terms of avoiding future economic costs and social impacts
* Provide policy-makers, third sector organisations and practitioners with early warning indicators that can be easily and effectively used to identify and avoid imminent tipping points
* Provide evidence to better articulate and quantify the benefits of peatland restoration for delaying and/or avoiding tipping points for multiple ecosystem services as part of the business case for investment in peatland restoration, for UK Peatland Code & Natural Capital Committee

We will work closely with local stakeholders at each site to adapt the research as far as possible to their needs and deliver impacts that will benefit them. We will also engage with wider national stakeholders to derive impacts; based on a recent stakeholder analysis conducted for Defra by the PI, stakeholders can be broadly grouped as:
* Policy stakeholders: including Defra, DECC, the Devolved Administrations, agencies such as Natural England and Scottish Natural Heritage, Climate Change Adaptation Sub-Committee, Natural Capital Committee and Forestry Commission. The team has a strong working relationship with Defra's soils team and each of the relevant policy leads in the DAs.
* Land owning and management community: including farmers, sporting estates and other private landowners and their representative bodies. The team works closely with National Farmers Union, the Moorland Association (England), Scotland's Moorland Forum and other groups.
* Third sector: including landowning NGOs such as RSPB, PlantLife and National Trust, and other NGOs that work and campaign on issues linked to peatlands e.g. Woodland Trust and John Muir Trust. The team already has close working relationships with all major environmental NGOs working in peatlands in the UK via the IUCN UK Peatland Programme, and we have good relationships with others such as Country Land and Business Association
* Professional bodies such as British Ecological Society, Royal Institute for Chartered Surveyors and Institute for Environmental Management and Assessment (our team are members of some of these bodies)
* Tourism and recreation interests, ranging from SMEs and their representative organisations (e.g. the Confederation of Small Businesses) and Local Access Groups to a wide range of organisations, associations and clubs, such as the British Mountaineering Council and the Ramblers Association.
* Water industry: the team have strong links via previous projects and consultancy work for all the UK water companies that source water from peatland catchments including South West Water, Yorkshire Water, United Utilities, Severn Trent, Nortumbria Water and Scottish Water. Interests focus primarily on tipping points relating to water quality
* Research organisations with interests in peatlands, including Higher Education Institutes, RCUK funded Centres and other Government funded research institutes such as Scotland's Main Research Providers.
* Publics with interests in conservation and climate change, and who pursue recreation and tourism in peatlands or engage with peatlands from time-to-time via other stakeholder interests above