Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Distribution Loads at Network Asset Level

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Title
Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Distribution Loads at Network Asset Level

CoPED ID
0c6c8a86-b048-46ff-b5d4-f6877d54cd68

Status
Closed


Value
£549,085

Start Date
April 30, 2014

End Date
Feb. 28, 2015

Description

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In response to growing electricity demand and on-site generation, distribution network operators (DNOs) in the UK are forecast to spend over £43 billion in the coming four decades on reinforcing the network that delivers electricity to UK homes and businesses. To help DNOs plan this task, they have access to forecasting tools that predict the impacts of population growth, energy efficiency improvements and low carbon technology uptake on network loads by specific region and individual asset. However, there is currently no way of quantifying how climate change impacts on demand (e.g. more summer cooling and less winter heating) and distributed generation (e.g. changing average solar insolation and wind levels) will influence the extent of network upgrades required. In this project, we will assess the feasibility of combining Met Office climate forecast data with DNO load data to determine the size and network location of potential climate change impacts on load. To do this, we will develop a prototype tool that combines these datasets to predict climate change load impacts and likelihood, resolved to individual network assets and regions, under various climate change scenarios.

ELEMENT ENERGY LIMITED LEAD_ORG
ELEMENT ENERGY LIMITED PARTICIPANT_ORG
MET OFFICE PARTICIPANT_ORG

Mark Hughes PM_PER

Subjects by relevance
  1. Climate changes
  2. Forecasts
  3. Scenarios
  4. Climate
  5. Modelling (representation)
  6. Energy efficiency
  7. Business operations
  8. Effects (results)
  9. Future
  10. Networks (societal phenomena)
  11. Enterprises
  12. Climate protection
  13. Economic effects
  14. Greenhouse gases

Extracted key phrases
  1. Climate change load impact
  2. Met Office climate forecast datum
  3. Potential climate change impact
  4. Electricity distribution Loads
  5. Distribution network operator
  6. Network load
  7. Individual network asset
  8. Network Asset Level
  9. Climate change scenario
  10. Electricity demand
  11. Network location
  12. Network upgrade
  13. Site generation
  14. UK home
  15. Low carbon technology uptake

Related Pages

UKRI project entry

UK Project Locations